Our analysis of the labor situation in Iran between July -December 2024 reveals that the primary concerns of Iranian workers revolved around livelihood issues and the pursuit of improved living conditions. These challenges created an environment conductive to the resurgence of labor protests.

Ordinary Iranians not only struggled to meet basic needs but also faced worsening conditions due to Iran's acute energy crisis, which led to prolonged shutdowns in many industrial and manufacturing sectors, threatening bankruptcy and job losses in a country already grappling with high unemployment.

While the roots of the energy crisis predate Pezeshkian's administration, the government had opportunities to address the ongoing disconnect between the minimum wage and inflation, as well as the numerous demands from impoverished and marginalized workers, including wage arrears and improved safety measures.

In short, Pezeshkian's response to labor issues was limited. While he made some efforts to improve nurses' wages following their strikes, this action seemed more a reaction to disruptions than a genuine commitment to reform. The new cabinet issued pension equalization rulings, but many of these initiatives were already in progress under the previous government and amounted to little more than token gestures. Additionally, the pledge to assist school janitors did not yet translate into meaningful support, as is the case with improving the lives of miners. Altogether, amid a significant volume of strikes and labor protests between July and December, the government‘s overall response was characterized by minimal compromises, raising serious doubts about its commitment to addressing the systemic issues faced by workers across various sectors.

Politically, there was little progress in the freedoms associated with labor protests. Similar to the previous administration, the new government resorted to coercion in an attempt to control labor activism. However, it appeared more reluctant to employ harsh measures such as arrests and initiating court cases against labor activists. Instead, employment agencies increasingly acted as the government‘s enforcers, imposing penalties like dismissals and bans on re-entering the sector, as well as selectively distributing job benefits. This more subtle form of coercion may be a popular strategy for the government because it allowes them to maintain control over labor movements without drawing significant attention to their actions. By avoiding overt repression, the regime can also limit the potential for international scrutiny and pressure, while still effectively suppressing dissent and managing public perception.

In the realm of online protests, a similar subtle strategy may be emerging. The Memorandum of Understanding between Iran’s largest online petitioning network, Karzar.Net, and the government raises concerns about increased government control over this platform. Additionally, it is noteworthy that many labor activists remain imprisoned, including those with precarious health conditions.

Overall, the future appears bleak for Iran’s workforce unless the Pezeshkian regime initiates substantial reforms. The persistent disconnect between the minimum wage and high inflation threatens to stifle economic growth, making deflation increasingly unlikely. Furthermore, the unresolved energy crisis, a result of years of mismanagement and underinvestment, continues to undermine Iran’s economic stability.

Despite these challenges, there are also opportunities:

1. Collective Action Success: The successful protests by Iran’s nurses demonstrate that collective leverage can be a powerful tool for achieving change. Similarly, pensioners have shown that their numbers can significantly impact outcomes.
2. Emergence of Online Assemblies: In spite of years of severe repression, some of Iran’s trade unions have begun to hold online assemblies. This development could lead to more organized and impactful protests. The lack of trade union involvement in many protests has often resulted in uncoordinated actions, diminishing their chances of success. By holding assemblies, even virtually, trade unions can reconnect with their worker base.
3. Necessity for public support: The public outcry following the Tabas coal mine incident compelled the Iranian government to officially commit to increasing miners‘ wages. This illustrates that even a highly authoritarian regime like the Iranian one requires public support to maintain its authority.

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